This is the current Metaculus forecast for AGI:
Do decisions by EAs working in other cause areas mostly ignore this?
For example, are timelines for transformative AGI taken into account in work such as:
Deciding whether to donate money later vs now
Estimating existential risk from climate change, nuclear war and engineered pandemics past 2043 / 2068 / 2199
Deciding whether to pursue “move fast, break things” approaches vs lower downside risk, slower, reform approaches
And additionally, should timelines for transformative AI be taken into account in this work?
[Question] Are AGI timelines ignored in EA work on other cause areas?
This is the current Metaculus forecast for AGI:
Do decisions by EAs working in other cause areas mostly ignore this?
For example, are timelines for transformative AGI taken into account in work such as:
Deciding whether to donate money later vs now
Estimating existential risk from climate change, nuclear war and engineered pandemics past 2043 / 2068 / 2199
Deciding whether to pursue “move fast, break things” approaches vs lower downside risk, slower, reform approaches
And additionally, should timelines for transformative AI be taken into account in this work?