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AI forecasting

TagLast edit: 3 May 2021 22:20 UTC by EA Wiki assistant

AI forecasting includes trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have.

Related entries

AI alignment | AI governance | AI Impacts | estimating existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting

Why AI is Harder Than We Think—Me­lanie Mitchell

evelynciara28 Apr 2021 8:19 UTC
42 points
6 comments2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Sur­vey on AI ex­is­ten­tial risk scenarios

SamClarke8 Jun 2021 17:12 UTC
135 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 21:26 UTC
39 points
12 comments8 min readEA link

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya15 Dec 2020 12:10 UTC
28 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(alignmentforum.org)

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

jacobjacob29 Aug 2019 17:43 UTC
28 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

jacobjacob8 Aug 2019 13:16 UTC
18 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

jacobjacob3 Sep 2019 14:57 UTC
23 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
41 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

evelynciara12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
20 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlod18 Jan 2021 12:39 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Re­port on Semi-in­for­ma­tive Pri­ors for AI timelines (Open Philan­thropy)

Tom_Davidson26 Mar 2021 17:46 UTC
62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

[Link] “The AI Timelines Scam”

Milan_Griffes11 Jul 2019 3:37 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Atari early

AI Impacts2 Apr 2020 23:28 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
10 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod28 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

kokotajlod5 Nov 2020 19:57 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

AI Impacts17 Apr 2020 16:28 UTC
60 points
3 comments24 min readEA link

Per­sua­sion Tools: AI takeover with­out AGI or agency?

kokotajlod20 Nov 2020 16:56 UTC
11 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

Rele­vant pre-AGI possibilities

kokotajlod20 Jun 2020 13:15 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

AMA: Ajeya Co­tra, re­searcher at Open Phil

Ajeya28 Jan 2021 17:38 UTC
83 points
107 comments1 min readEA link

Draft re­port on ex­is­ten­tial risk from power-seek­ing AI

Joe_Carlsmith28 Apr 2021 21:41 UTC
76 points
33 comments1 min readEA link

My at­tempt to think about AI timelines

Ben_Snodin18 May 2021 17:05 UTC
52 points
20 comments9 min readEA link

Pre­dict re­sponses to the “ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” survey

RobBensinger28 May 2021 1:38 UTC
36 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: May 2021 grant recommendations

abergal27 May 2021 6:44 UTC
110 points
15 comments57 min readEA link

“Ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” sur­vey results

RobBensinger1 Jun 2021 20:19 UTC
75 points
35 comments11 min readEA link

Vignettes Work­shop (AI Im­pacts)

kokotajlod15 Jun 2021 11:02 UTC
41 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Effects of anti-ag­ing re­search on the long-term future

Matthew_Barnett27 Feb 2020 22:42 UTC
52 points
32 comments4 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
37 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

kokotajlod1 Mar 2021 21:04 UTC
28 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A con­ver­sa­tion with Ro­hin Shah

AI Impacts12 Nov 2019 1:31 UTC
27 points
8 comments33 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

If slow-take­off AGI is some­what likely, don’t give now

Milan_Griffes23 Jan 2019 20:54 UTC
21 points
33 commentsEA link

[Question] How much will pre-trans­for­ma­tive AI speed up R&D?

Ben_Snodin31 May 2021 20:20 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
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