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AI forecasting

TagLast edit: 5 Aug 2021 20:26 UTC by EA Wiki assistant

AI forecasting is the process of trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have (Muehlhauser 2015) .

Bibliography

Muehlhauser, Luke (2015) What do we know about AI timelines?, Open Philanthropy, October (updated July 2016).

External links

Ai timelines available at the AI Impacts website.

Related entries

AI alignment | AI governance | AI Impacts | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting

Why AI is Harder Than We Think—Me­lanie Mitchell

evelynciara28 Apr 2021 8:19 UTC
42 points
6 comments2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Sur­vey on AI ex­is­ten­tial risk scenarios

SamClarke8 Jun 2021 17:12 UTC
137 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

Re­port on Whether AI Could Drive Ex­plo­sive Eco­nomic Growth

Tom_Davidson25 Jun 2021 23:02 UTC
63 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 21:26 UTC
39 points
12 comments8 min readEA link

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya15 Dec 2020 12:10 UTC
28 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(alignmentforum.org)

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

jacobjacob29 Aug 2019 17:43 UTC
28 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

jacobjacob8 Aug 2019 13:16 UTC
18 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

jacobjacob3 Sep 2019 14:57 UTC
23 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
41 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

evelynciara12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
21 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlod18 Jan 2021 12:39 UTC
27 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Re­port on Semi-in­for­ma­tive Pri­ors for AI timelines (Open Philan­thropy)

Tom_Davidson26 Mar 2021 17:46 UTC
62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

[Link] “The AI Timelines Scam”

Milan_Griffes11 Jul 2019 3:37 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Atari early

AI Impacts2 Apr 2020 23:28 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
10 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod28 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

kokotajlod5 Nov 2020 19:57 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

AI Impacts17 Apr 2020 16:28 UTC
60 points
3 comments24 min readEA link

Per­sua­sion Tools: AI takeover with­out AGI or agency?

kokotajlod20 Nov 2020 16:56 UTC
12 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

Rele­vant pre-AGI possibilities

kokotajlod20 Jun 2020 13:15 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

AMA: Ajeya Co­tra, re­searcher at Open Phil

Ajeya28 Jan 2021 17:38 UTC
83 points
107 comments1 min readEA link

Draft re­port on ex­is­ten­tial risk from power-seek­ing AI

Joe_Carlsmith28 Apr 2021 21:41 UTC
76 points
33 comments1 min readEA link

My at­tempt to think about AI timelines

Ben_Snodin18 May 2021 17:05 UTC
52 points
20 comments9 min readEA link

Pre­dict re­sponses to the “ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” survey

RobBensinger28 May 2021 1:38 UTC
36 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: May 2021 grant recommendations

abergal27 May 2021 6:44 UTC
110 points
15 comments57 min readEA link

“Ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” sur­vey results

RobBensinger1 Jun 2021 20:19 UTC
76 points
35 comments11 min readEA link

Vignettes Work­shop (AI Im­pacts)

kokotajlod15 Jun 2021 11:02 UTC
43 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Effects of anti-ag­ing re­search on the long-term future

Matthew_Barnett27 Feb 2020 22:42 UTC
54 points
33 comments4 min readEA link

[Link post] Pa­ram­e­ter counts in Ma­chine Learning

Jsevillamol1 Jul 2021 15:44 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s GWP model and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

Tom_Davidson19 Jul 2021 21:47 UTC
88 points
6 comments8 min readEA link

How Do AI Timelines Affect Giv­ing Now vs. Later?

MichaelDickens3 Aug 2021 3:36 UTC
32 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

What 2026 looks like (Daniel’s me­dian fu­ture)

kokotajlod7 Aug 2021 5:14 UTC
32 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Trans­for­ma­tive AI Timelines Part 1 of 4: What Kind of AI?

Holden Karnofsky10 Aug 2021 21:38 UTC
54 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: what’s the bur­den of proof?

Holden Karnofsky17 Aug 2021 17:14 UTC
64 points
12 comments16 min readEA link

Im­pli­ca­tion of AI timelines on plan­ning and solutions

JJ Hepburn21 Aug 2021 5:11 UTC
12 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Are we “trend­ing to­ward” trans­for­ma­tive AI? (How would we know?)

Holden Karnofsky24 Aug 2021 17:15 UTC
51 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] What are the top pri­ori­ties in a slow-take­off, mul­ti­po­lar world?

JP Addison25 Aug 2021 8:47 UTC
26 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: the “biolog­i­cal an­chors” method in a nutshell

Holden Karnofsky31 Aug 2021 18:17 UTC
40 points
2 comments18 min readEA link

AI Timelines: Where the Ar­gu­ments, and the “Ex­perts,” Stand

Holden Karnofsky7 Sep 2021 17:35 UTC
70 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

It takes 5 lay­ers and 1000 ar­tifi­cial neu­rons to simu­late a sin­gle biolog­i­cal neu­ron [Link]

MichaelStJules7 Sep 2021 21:53 UTC
40 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

AI timelines and the­o­ret­i­cal un­der­stand­ing of deep learn­ing

Venky102412 Sep 2021 16:26 UTC
4 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
37 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

kokotajlod1 Mar 2021 21:04 UTC
28 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A con­ver­sa­tion with Ro­hin Shah

AI Impacts12 Nov 2019 1:31 UTC
27 points
8 comments33 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

If slow-take­off AGI is some­what likely, don’t give now

Milan_Griffes23 Jan 2019 20:54 UTC
21 points
33 commentsEA link

[Question] How much will pre-trans­for­ma­tive AI speed up R&D?

Ben_Snodin31 May 2021 20:20 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

Charles Dillon 20 Jul 2021 9:07 UTC
67 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

[Link post] Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_Eth22 Sep 2021 2:43 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:54 UTC
19 points
2 comments20 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:53 UTC
38 points
1 comment9 min readEA link
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