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AI forecasting

TagLast edit: 5 Jan 2022 16:14 UTC by Pablo

AI forecasting is the process of trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have.

Further reading

Cotra, Ajeya (2020) Draft report on AI timelines, LessWrong, September 18.

Davidson, Tom (2021) Semi-informative priors over AI timelines, Open Philanthropy, March 25.

Gruetzemacher, Ross et al. (2020) Forecasting AI progress: a research agenda, ArXiv:2008.01848 [Cs].

Koehler, Arden, Robert Wiblin & Keiran Harris (2020) Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress, 80,000 Hours, May 22.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2018) How well can we actually predict the future? Katja Grace on why expert opinion isn’t a great guide to AI’s impact and how to do better, 80,000 Hours, August 21.

External links

AI timelines. List of publications by AI Impacts.

Related entries

AI alignment | AI governance | AI Impacts | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting

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0 comments1 min readEA link

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0 comments3 min readEA link

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Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

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Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

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27 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

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62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

[Link] “The AI Timelines Scam”

Milan_Griffes11 Jul 2019 3:37 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Atari early

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34 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod28 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

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18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

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Per­sua­sion Tools: AI takeover with­out AGI or agency?

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107 comments1 min readEA link

Draft re­port on ex­is­ten­tial risk from power-seek­ing AI

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76 points
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My at­tempt to think about AI timelines

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52 points
20 comments9 min readEA link

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36 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

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110 points
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“Ex­is­ten­tial risk from AI” sur­vey results

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76 points
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Vignettes Work­shop (AI Im­pacts)

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54 points
33 comments4 min readEA link

[Link post] Pa­ram­e­ter counts in Ma­chine Learning

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15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s model of eco­nomic growth and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

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88 points
6 comments8 min readEA link

How Do AI Timelines Affect Giv­ing Now vs. Later?

MichaelDickens3 Aug 2021 3:36 UTC
33 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

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32 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
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54 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

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69 points
14 comments16 min readEA link

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15 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

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53 points
11 comments10 min readEA link

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26 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

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43 points
13 comments18 min readEA link

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71 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

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40 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

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4 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

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10 points
0 comments53 min readEA link
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31 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

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36 points
7 comments10 min readEA link

Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

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42 points
0 comments60 min readEA link

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18 points
6 comments68 min readEA link

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22 points
3 comments65 min readEA link

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41 points
0 comments20 min readEA link

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14 points
1 comment40 min readEA link

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15 points
3 comments31 min readEA link

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38 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

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28 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A con­ver­sa­tion with Ro­hin Shah

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27 points
8 comments33 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

If slow-take­off AGI is some­what likely, don’t give now

Milan_Griffes23 Jan 2019 20:54 UTC
21 points
33 commentsEA link

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Ben_Snodin31 May 2021 20:20 UTC
23 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

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67 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

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Holden Karnofsky16 May 2016 13:08 UTC
3 points
0 comments35 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

[Link post] Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

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22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:54 UTC
25 points
4 comments19 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:53 UTC
46 points
5 comments9 min readEA link

[Link post] Will we see fast AI Take­off?

SammyDMartin30 Sep 2021 14:03 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Com­pute—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [2/​4]

lennart1 Oct 2021 8:25 UTC
27 points
6 comments19 min readEA link

Com­pute Gover­nance and Con­clu­sions—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [3/​4]

lennart14 Oct 2021 7:55 UTC
16 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Mag­nus Vind­ing on re­duc­ing suffer­ing, why AI progress is likely to be grad­ual and dis­tributed and how to rea­son about poli­tics

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21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.utilitarianpodcast.com)

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:18 UTC
12 points
0 comments16 min readEA link

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11 points
0 comments42 min readEA link

Com­mon con­cep­tual frame­work to talk about progress on AGI Safety?

Nico27 Dec 2021 19:33 UTC
7 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
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