Is there a $100B idea with a 1% chance of working?
Coming from the startup world: it’s pretty unlikely you will find great startups by thinking from this angle. Why? First, entrepreneurship appears to work much better when you don’t over-index on the “what if it works?” storyline too early, as it causes people to dig a hole that’s “broad and shallow” (which causes your feedback loops to suck, which causes you to fail to make progress, get demotivated and quit) . Second, a ton of other people are trying to find ideas with similar chances of success (competitors only matter early on in a huge market, but an idea of this value must be in a huge market).
Coming from the startup world: it’s pretty unlikely you will find great startups by thinking from this angle. Why? First, entrepreneurship appears to work much better when you don’t over-index on the “what if it works?” storyline too early, as it causes people to dig a hole that’s “broad and shallow” (which causes your feedback loops to suck, which causes you to fail to make progress, get demotivated and quit) . Second, a ton of other people are trying to find ideas with similar chances of success (competitors only matter early on in a huge market, but an idea of this value must be in a huge market).