I’m not Holly, but my response is that getting a pause now is likely to increase, rather than decrease, the chance of getting future pauses. Quoting Evan Hubinger (2022):
In the theory of political capital, it is a fairly well-established fact that ‘Everybody Loves a Winner.’ That is: the more you succeed at leveraging your influence to get things done, the more influence you get in return. This phenomenon is most thoroughlystudied in the context of the ability of U.S. presidents to get their agendas through Congress—contrary to a naive model that might predict that legislative success uses up a president’s influence, what is actually found is the opposite: legislative success engenders future legislative success, greater presidential approval, and long-term gains for the president’s party.
I think many people who think about the mechanics of leveraging influence don’t really understand this phenomenon and conceptualize their influence as a finite resource to be saved up over time so it can all be spent down when it matters most. But I think that is just not how it works: if people see you successfully leveraging influence to change things, you become seen as a person who has influence, has the ability to change things, can get things done, etc. in a way that gives you more influence in the future, not less.
My sense is that this is a pretty major crux between my and Carl’s views.
I’m not Holly, but my response is that getting a pause now is likely to increase, rather than decrease, the chance of getting future pauses. Quoting Evan Hubinger (2022):
My sense is that this is a pretty major crux between my and Carl’s views.