I think log returns is reasonable—that’s what we generally assumed in the cost effectiveness analyses that estimated that AGI safety, resilient foods, and interventions for loss of electricity/industry catastrophes would generally be lower cost per life saved in the present generation than GiveWell. But that was only for the first ~$3 billion for AGI safety and the first few hundred million dollars for the other interventions.
I think log returns is reasonable—that’s what we generally assumed in the cost effectiveness analyses that estimated that AGI safety, resilient foods, and interventions for loss of electricity/industry catastrophes would generally be lower cost per life saved in the present generation than GiveWell. But that was only for the first ~$3 billion for AGI safety and the first few hundred million dollars for the other interventions.