I do think that it’s interesting (and maybe surprising?) that best guesses might suggest marginal x-risk interventions and global dev interventions are within 1-2 OOMs of each other in cost-effectiveness, with a presentist-ish lens. Given the radically different epistemic states and quality of evidence that generated these estimates, as well as the large differences between the object level activities, as well as funding levels, our prior belief on this question before updating on the evidence might look quite different!
I do think that it’s interesting (and maybe surprising?) that best guesses might suggest marginal x-risk interventions and global dev interventions are within 1-2 OOMs of each other in cost-effectiveness, with a presentist-ish lens. Given the radically different epistemic states and quality of evidence that generated these estimates, as well as the large differences between the object level activities, as well as funding levels, our prior belief on this question before updating on the evidence might look quite different!