Hi Stephen. I think I should have made this part clearer (I guess a chart would help). Consider the following scenarios:
A) In Universe A nothing catastrophic happens today. You can pick any 1% of the world and trace the cumulative number of humans they produce between today and the end of time.
B) In Universe B, a catastrophe happens today, leaving only 1% alive. You can trace the cumulative number of humans they produce between today and the end of time.
My intuition is that the cumulative number of humans that will ever exist at the end of time is similar in A and B. This applies to any random 1% of humans from Universe A. With this in mind, losing 99% of humanity today is approximately 99% worse than losing any 1% (including the last).
I agree that the total number of humans who will ever live at the end of time is similar in A and B. Therefore I think there is almost no difference between A and B in the long term.
The number of humans who will ever live is similar in scenarios A and B. But keep in mind that in scenario A we have randomly picked only 1% of all existing humans. The catastrophe that takes place in scenario B removes 99% of all humans alive, which in turn removes around 99% of all humans that could have lived at the end of time. That is an enormous difference in the long term. And that is the main point of that section: Saving lives now has an enormous impact in the long term.
“The catastrophe that takes place in scenario B removes 99% of all humans alive, which in turn removes around 99% of all humans that could have lived at the end of time.”
That would only happen if the population never recovered. But since I would expect the world to rapidly repopulate, I therefore would expect the long-term difference to be insignificant.
The survivors in B would eventually catch up with the living population of the world today, yes. However, the survivors in B would never catch up with the cumulative population of the universe where there was no catastrophe. While the survivors in B were recovering, the counterfactual universe has been creating more humans (as well as new pieces of art, scientific discoveries, etc.). It is impossible for B to catch up, regardless of how much you wait. All the human potential of the 99% who died in the catastrophe is lost forever.
It’s true that the universe B might never fully catch up because 99% of a single generation was lost. But over 1 billion years, we would expect about 40 million generations to live. Even if a few generations were lost, if there is a recovery the total loss won’t be high.
Whether and to what extent the survivors could catch up with the counterfactual universe strongly depends on the boundary conditions. Universe A could have expanded to other planets by the time B fully recovers. We are comparing the potential of a full, and fully developed humanity with a small post-apocalyptic fraction of humanity. I agree with you that planet boundaries (and other physical constraints) could reduce the potential of a random 1% in A with respect to B. But I suppose it can also go the other way: The survivors in B could produce less humans than any 1% of A, and keep this trend for many (even all) future generations. My intuition here is very limited.
Hi Stephen. I think I should have made this part clearer (I guess a chart would help). Consider the following scenarios:
A) In Universe A nothing catastrophic happens today. You can pick any 1% of the world and trace the cumulative number of humans they produce between today and the end of time.
B) In Universe B, a catastrophe happens today, leaving only 1% alive. You can trace the cumulative number of humans they produce between today and the end of time.
My intuition is that the cumulative number of humans that will ever exist at the end of time is similar in A and B. This applies to any random 1% of humans from Universe A. With this in mind, losing 99% of humanity today is approximately 99% worse than losing any 1% (including the last).
I agree that the total number of humans who will ever live at the end of time is similar in A and B. Therefore I think there is almost no difference between A and B in the long term.
The number of humans who will ever live is similar in scenarios A and B. But keep in mind that in scenario A we have randomly picked only 1% of all existing humans. The catastrophe that takes place in scenario B removes 99% of all humans alive, which in turn removes around 99% of all humans that could have lived at the end of time. That is an enormous difference in the long term. And that is the main point of that section: Saving lives now has an enormous impact in the long term.
That would only happen if the population never recovered. But since I would expect the world to rapidly repopulate, I therefore would expect the long-term difference to be insignificant.
The survivors in B would eventually catch up with the living population of the world today, yes. However, the survivors in B would never catch up with the cumulative population of the universe where there was no catastrophe. While the survivors in B were recovering, the counterfactual universe has been creating more humans (as well as new pieces of art, scientific discoveries, etc.). It is impossible for B to catch up, regardless of how much you wait. All the human potential of the 99% who died in the catastrophe is lost forever.
It’s true that the universe B might never fully catch up because 99% of a single generation was lost. But over 1 billion years, we would expect about 40 million generations to live. Even if a few generations were lost, if there is a recovery the total loss won’t be high.
Whether and to what extent the survivors could catch up with the counterfactual universe strongly depends on the boundary conditions. Universe A could have expanded to other planets by the time B fully recovers. We are comparing the potential of a full, and fully developed humanity with a small post-apocalyptic fraction of humanity. I agree with you that planet boundaries (and other physical constraints) could reduce the potential of a random 1% in A with respect to B. But I suppose it can also go the other way: The survivors in B could produce less humans than any 1% of A, and keep this trend for many (even all) future generations. My intuition here is very limited.