Another explanation is just that we’ve basically found the best global health interventions, and so there isn’t much to do in the space—or at least not with current budget.
If this were true, GW/OP wouldn’t be funding new areas like lead poisoning or air pollution. You could argue those areas are speculative and may not beat GW top charities, but then there’s still tremendous value of information from funding them to see if they do beat GW top charities. Either way, there’s no argument for resting on our laurels.
It seems consistent for it to be true and for us not to know that it’s true. All GW can ultimately do is keep trying and assessing new stuff, and if it fails to to beat AMF & co, gradually increase their credence that they’ve found the best areas.
I’m somewhat unsure what you mean when you describe these things as having ‘tremendous value of information’ while also thinking they represent ‘very little dynamism or experimentation’ btw (not claiming you’re inconsistent, just that I find them a confusing pair of statements as contextualised so far and would be interested for you to clarify).
It seems consistent for it to be true and for us not to know that it’s true.
That’s what I mean by value of information. My point is that there is high value of information in testing new interventions, and that OP/GW/CE are definitely doing this exploration, but that the community is adding very little to this exploration process. What little innovation there has been in EA GHD has been mostly top down and led by these organizations rather than based on collective research.
Gotcha. My guess is that’s funding- and culture-driven—my sense is EA community orgs have been put under substantial pressure to prioritise longtermist/AI stuff to a substantially greater degree than they used to.
Maybe, although this conclusion would likely be dependent on applying GiveWell-like moral weights that heavily favor saving lives. I’m not saying those weights are wrong, just that they are not beyond questioning.
Another explanation is just that we’ve basically found the best global health interventions, and so there isn’t much to do in the space—or at least not with current budget.
If this were true, GW/OP wouldn’t be funding new areas like lead poisoning or air pollution. You could argue those areas are speculative and may not beat GW top charities, but then there’s still tremendous value of information from funding them to see if they do beat GW top charities. Either way, there’s no argument for resting on our laurels.
It seems consistent for it to be true and for us not to know that it’s true. All GW can ultimately do is keep trying and assessing new stuff, and if it fails to to beat AMF & co, gradually increase their credence that they’ve found the best areas.
I’m somewhat unsure what you mean when you describe these things as having ‘tremendous value of information’ while also thinking they represent ‘very little dynamism or experimentation’ btw (not claiming you’re inconsistent, just that I find them a confusing pair of statements as contextualised so far and would be interested for you to clarify).
That’s what I mean by value of information. My point is that there is high value of information in testing new interventions, and that OP/GW/CE are definitely doing this exploration, but that the community is adding very little to this exploration process. What little innovation there has been in EA GHD has been mostly top down and led by these organizations rather than based on collective research.
Gotcha. My guess is that’s funding- and culture-driven—my sense is EA community orgs have been put under substantial pressure to prioritise longtermist/AI stuff to a substantially greater degree than they used to.
Maybe, although this conclusion would likely be dependent on applying GiveWell-like moral weights that heavily favor saving lives. I’m not saying those weights are wrong, just that they are not beyond questioning.