There’s a bit of a history of estimating how low the probabilities are that we can ignore.
See also “Exceeding Expectations: Stochastic Dominance as a General Decision Theory” (Tarsney, 2020); West (2021) summarises this Tarsney paper, which is pretty technical. A key sentence from West:
Tarsney argues that we should use an alternative decision criterion called stochastic dominance which agrees with EV in non-Pascallian situations, but, when combined with the above argument about uncertainty, disagrees with EV in Pascallian ones.
This reminds me of Ole Peters alternative time resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox. I’d really appreciate more summaries of abstruse technical papers on alternatives to expected utility weird scenarios.
See also “Exceeding Expectations: Stochastic Dominance as a General Decision Theory” (Tarsney, 2020); West (2021) summarises this Tarsney paper, which is pretty technical. A key sentence from West:
This reminds me of Ole Peters alternative time resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox. I’d really appreciate more summaries of abstruse technical papers on alternatives to expected utility weird scenarios.