My view is that this is a bet we’d take again. Copied from my twitter:
Sam Bankman-Fried et al spent $13 million on a 30% chance for Carrick Flynn to win. Assuming an 80% chance to win in the national, that’s $50 million for a house seat for someone who cares deeply about pandemic prevention + great record + all the information learned in the campaign.
Would we pay that much for every house seat? I don’t know, probably? How many seats do you need to pass pandemic bills? Also the first person has much higher marginal value. This looks like a choice that those involved would make again.
Also, this has great signalling value. If I were in a tough race in the next 2 years, I’d be pushing for Pandemic Legislation and negotiating for some money. “If he’s willing to blow $13 mill on a nobody, if I back this legislation, maybe he’ll back me”
Yeah overall sounds right to me. Maybe be careful about using phrases like “pay for a house seat.” I think something like “$50 million to raise awareness of Biden’s Pandemic Prevention Plan until it becomes a top priority for a representative” gets the same point across more clearly, whether it’s done by convincing voters to elect a champion of it or winning over existing reps.
Also I think 30% is probably too high for new candidates in races with party backed state reps who already represent most of the voters in the race.
My view is that this is a bet we’d take again. Copied from my twitter:
Sam Bankman-Fried et al spent $13 million on a 30% chance for Carrick Flynn to win. Assuming an 80% chance to win in the national, that’s $50 million for a house seat for someone who cares deeply about pandemic prevention + great record + all the information learned in the campaign.
Would we pay that much for every house seat? I don’t know, probably? How many seats do you need to pass pandemic bills? Also the first person has much higher marginal value. This looks like a choice that those involved would make again.
Also, this has great signalling value. If I were in a tough race in the next 2 years, I’d be pushing for Pandemic Legislation and negotiating for some money. “If he’s willing to blow $13 mill on a nobody, if I back this legislation, maybe he’ll back me”
correct me if I’m wrong
Yeah overall sounds right to me. Maybe be careful about using phrases like “pay for a house seat.” I think something like “$50 million to raise awareness of Biden’s Pandemic Prevention Plan until it becomes a top priority for a representative” gets the same point across more clearly, whether it’s done by convincing voters to elect a champion of it or winning over existing reps.
Also I think 30% is probably too high for new candidates in races with party backed state reps who already represent most of the voters in the race.