One possibility is something relating to (un)predictability or (un)foreseeability. That has the advantage that it relates to forecasting.
Hmm, I’m unsure whether the link to forecasting is more of an advantage or a disadvantage. It’s suggestive of the idea that one deals with the problem by becoming better at forecasting, which I think is something which is helpful, but probably only a small minority of how we should address it.
I agree that that shouldn’t be the main strategy. But my sense is that this issue isn’t a disadvantage of using a term like “predictability” or a synonym.
I think one advantage of such a term is that it relates to major areas of research, that many people know about.
I think that bare terms like “unpredictability” or particularly “uncertainty” are much too weak; they don’t properly convey the degree of epistemic challenge, and hence don’t pick out what’s unusual about the problem situation that we’re grappling with.
“Unforseeability” is a bit stronger, but still seems rather too weak. I think “unknowability”, “radical uncertainty”, and “cluelessness” are all in the right ballpark for their connotations.
I do think “unknowability” for (2) and “absolute/total unknowability” for (1) is an interesting alternative. Using “unknowable” rather than “clueless” puts the emphasis on the decision situation rather than the agent; I’m not sure whether that’s better.
Yeah, I agree that one would need to add some adjective (e.g. “total” or “radical”) to several of these.
“Unknowability” sounds good at first glance; I’d need to think about use cases.
I see now that you made the agent-decision situation distinction that I also made above. I do think that “unknowable” putting an emphasis on the decision situation is to its advantage.
Hmm, I’m unsure whether the link to forecasting is more of an advantage or a disadvantage. It’s suggestive of the idea that one deals with the problem by becoming better at forecasting, which I think is something which is helpful, but probably only a small minority of how we should address it.
I agree that that shouldn’t be the main strategy. But my sense is that this issue isn’t a disadvantage of using a term like “predictability” or a synonym.
I think one advantage of such a term is that it relates to major areas of research, that many people know about.
Another term is “uncertainty”; cf. “radical uncertainty”.
I think that bare terms like “unpredictability” or particularly “uncertainty” are much too weak; they don’t properly convey the degree of epistemic challenge, and hence don’t pick out what’s unusual about the problem situation that we’re grappling with.
“Unforseeability” is a bit stronger, but still seems rather too weak. I think “unknowability”, “radical uncertainty”, and “cluelessness” are all in the right ballpark for their connotations.
I do think “unknowability” for (2) and “absolute/total unknowability” for (1) is an interesting alternative. Using “unknowable” rather than “clueless” puts the emphasis on the decision situation rather than the agent; I’m not sure whether that’s better.
Yeah, I agree that one would need to add some adjective (e.g. “total” or “radical”) to several of these.
“Unknowability” sounds good at first glance; I’d need to think about use cases.
I see now that you made the agent-decision situation distinction that I also made above. I do think that “unknowable” putting an emphasis on the decision situation is to its advantage.