I’m wondering if the idea of the Thucydides Trap could be considered an info hazard. The idea is that a rising power/country/nation naturally tends to cause military conflict with an established power/country/nation. Graham Allison popularized the idea. If he had chosen to not popularize the term, would fewer people hold the perspective that violent conflict is inevitable between the US and China. Is this somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Hard to state with any confidence, but considering how widespread the idea is (among foreign policy folks in the USA and China, at least), it at least strikes me as a reasonable hypothesis: as a result of learning about the Thucydides Trap people think that war is more likely, which in turn makes war more likely.
I’m wondering if the idea of the Thucydides Trap could be considered an info hazard. The idea is that a rising power/country/nation naturally tends to cause military conflict with an established power/country/nation. Graham Allison popularized the idea. If he had chosen to not popularize the term, would fewer people hold the perspective that violent conflict is inevitable between the US and China. Is this somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Hard to state with any confidence, but considering how widespread the idea is (among foreign policy folks in the USA and China, at least), it at least strikes me as a reasonable hypothesis: as a result of learning about the Thucydides Trap people think that war is more likely, which in turn makes war more likely.