I think it’s mostly because these estimates aren’t properly adjusted for regression to the mean – there’s a ton of sources of model error, and properly factoring these in will greatly reduce the top interventions. There are also other factors like the top interventions quickly running out of capacity. I discuss this in the article. I put a lot more trust in GiveWell’s figures as an estimate of the real marginal cost-effectiveness. Though I agree there could be some interventions accessible to policy-makers that aren’t accessible to GiveWell.
I think it’s mostly because these estimates aren’t properly adjusted for regression to the mean – there’s a ton of sources of model error, and properly factoring these in will greatly reduce the top interventions. There are also other factors like the top interventions quickly running out of capacity. I discuss this in the article. I put a lot more trust in GiveWell’s figures as an estimate of the real marginal cost-effectiveness. Though I agree there could be some interventions accessible to policy-makers that aren’t accessible to GiveWell.
Yea, I agree with your analyses in the article, though I’d be interested in understanding the relative effects