Right, I’d forgotten that betting on this is hard. I was thinking if one could do a sort of cross-over between an end-of-the-world bet crossed with betting a specific on a proportion of one’s net worth. This is the most fleshed-out proposal I’ve seen so far.
But I don’t want to give a stranger from another country a 7-year loan that I wouldn’t be able to compel them to repay once the time is up.
I wonder if this could be solved via a trusted third person who knows both bettors. (I think there are possible solutions here via blockchains, e.g. the ability to unilaterally destroy an escrow, but I guess that’s going to become quite complicated, not worth the setup, and using a technology I guess you’re skeptical of anyway)
Right, I’d forgotten that betting on this is hard. I was thinking if one could do a sort of cross-over between an end-of-the-world bet crossed with betting a specific on a proportion of one’s net worth. This is the most fleshed-out proposal I’ve seen so far.
I wonder if this could be solved via a trusted third person who knows both bettors. (I think there are possible solutions here via blockchains, e.g. the ability to unilaterally destroy an escrow, but I guess that’s going to become quite complicated, not worth the setup, and using a technology I guess you’re skeptical of anyway)