I would like to see near-term EAs like GiveWell looking more at the long-term implications of the interventions they recommend and more speculative but potentially higher return interventions such as policy change
I wholeheartedly agree. Last month, GiveDirectly criticized GiveWell for ignoring externalities of cash transfers, and while I think this is sort of unfair given they also ignore externalities of malaria prevention, I genuinely don’t know what kind of multiplier to put on various effective short-term interventions.
In my post, Mortality, existential risk, and universal basic income, I summarized some research connecting poverty to patience, trust, and attitudes toward global cooperation. This evidence is sparse and mostly (though not entirely) correlational, and the connection to longtermism is speculative at this point. The EA community could fill some of this knowledge gap by commissioning surveys on longtermist attitudes, and utilizing either natural experiments or RCTs to examine the effect of short-term interventions in shaping these attitudes.
I wholeheartedly agree. Last month, GiveDirectly criticized GiveWell for ignoring externalities of cash transfers, and while I think this is sort of unfair given they also ignore externalities of malaria prevention, I genuinely don’t know what kind of multiplier to put on various effective short-term interventions.
In my post, Mortality, existential risk, and universal basic income, I summarized some research connecting poverty to patience, trust, and attitudes toward global cooperation. This evidence is sparse and mostly (though not entirely) correlational, and the connection to longtermism is speculative at this point. The EA community could fill some of this knowledge gap by commissioning surveys on longtermist attitudes, and utilizing either natural experiments or RCTs to examine the effect of short-term interventions in shaping these attitudes.