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Thanks for reading and commenting! As you mentioned, the back of the envelope math here implies that the restrictions and bans that have come into force and are being discussed in European countries in the past few years are likely to have a net DALY-reducing effect, especially since pouches produced using good quality control are some of the safest noncombustible products currently available. (If you’re interested in the specific safety details across brands and varieties, Nicoleaks is a great resource.)

European Tobacco Harm Reduction Advocates, the main advocacy org in the region, has been pretty persistent in communications to both the public and to legislative bodies outlining this argument. They also published a survey a couple of years ago indicating about a third of European smokers would try snus as an alternative if it were made available. Unfortunately, they were unable to prevent recent bans in Belgium, France, and The Netherlands.

I agree it’s worth investigating the potential impact of their work, although my initial instict is that work in low and middle income countries, which tend to have both higher smoking rates, heavier restrictions (like outright bans on vaping in Brazil, India, and Mexico), and less accurate information available to consumers, could be lower hanging fruit.

I also don’t know that these bans have been that unpopular, which is not surprising given how misinformed the public is about the risks, as I mention in the post. It’s possible that clearing up that confusion is a necessary condition for any targeting of policy to have a decent chance of success.