A second or third place China that lags the US and allies could still be important. Since AI progress has recently moved at a break-neck pace, being second place might only mean being a year or two behind — though I suspect this gap will increase as the technology matures − 65%.
This is three different claims. Which one are you 65% confident in?
I think I was just reading all of those claims together and trying to subjectively guess how likely I find them all to be. So to split them up, in order of each claim: 90%, 90%, 80%.
This is three different claims. Which one are you 65% confident in?
I think I was just reading all of those claims together and trying to subjectively guess how likely I find them all to be. So to split them up, in order of each claim: 90%, 90%, 80%.