Assessing China’s importance as an AI superpower

Link post

I recently published a blog post where I tried to assess China’s importance as a global actor on the path transformative AI. This was a relatively shallow dive, but I hope it will still be able to spark an interesting conversation on this topic, and/​or inspire others to research this topic further.

The post is quite long (0ver 6,000 words), so I’ll copy and paste my bottom line takes, and (roughly) how confident I am in them after brief reflection:

  • China is, as of early 2023, overhyped as an AI superpower − 60%.

  • That being said, the reasons that they might emerge closer to the frontier, and the overall importance of positively shaping the development of AI, are enough to warrant a watchful eye on Chinese AI progress − 90%.

  • China’s recent AI research output, as it pertains to transformative AI, is not quite as impressive as headlines might otherwise suggest − 75%.

  • I suspect hardware difficulties, and structural factors that push top-tier researchers towards other countries, are two of China’s biggest hurdles in the short-to-medium term, and neither seem easily solvable − 60%.

  • It seems likely to me that the US is currently much more likely to create transformative AI before China, especially under short(ish) timelines (next 5-15 years) − 70%.

  • A second or third place China that lags the US and allies could still be important. Since AI progress has recently moved at a break-neck pace, being second place might only mean being a year or two behind — though I suspect this gap will increase as the technology matures − 65%.

  • I might be missing some important factors, and I’m not very certain about which are the most important when thinking about this question − 95%.