Yes, that’s what I meant. And FWIW, I wasn’t sure whether Ben was using modest epistemology (in my terminology, outside-view reasoning isn’t necessarily modest epistemology), but there were some passages in the original post that suggest low discrimination on how to construct the reference class. E.g., “10% on short timelines people” and “10% on long timelines people” suggests that one is simply including the sorts of timeline credences that happen to be around, without trying to evaluate people’s reasoning competence. For contrast, imagine wording things like this:
“10% credence each to persons A and B, who both appear to be well-informed on this topic and whose interestingly different reasoning styles both seem defensible to me, in the sense that I can’t confidently point out why one of them is better than the other.”
Yes, that’s what I meant. And FWIW, I wasn’t sure whether Ben was using modest epistemology (in my terminology, outside-view reasoning isn’t necessarily modest epistemology), but there were some passages in the original post that suggest low discrimination on how to construct the reference class. E.g., “10% on short timelines people” and “10% on long timelines people” suggests that one is simply including the sorts of timeline credences that happen to be around, without trying to evaluate people’s reasoning competence. For contrast, imagine wording things like this:
“10% credence each to persons A and B, who both appear to be well-informed on this topic and whose interestingly different reasoning styles both seem defensible to me, in the sense that I can’t confidently point out why one of them is better than the other.”
Thanks, this was helpful as an example of one way I might improve this process.