Yeah, I think that a lot of EAs working on AI safety feel similarly to me about this.
I expect the world to change pretty radically over the next 100 years, and I probably want to work on the radical change that’s going to matter first. So compared to the average educated American I have shorter AI timelines but also shorter timelines to the world becoming radically different for other reasons.
If I thought there was a <30% chance of AGI within 50 years, I’d probably not be working on AI safety.
I expect the world to change pretty radically over the next 100 years.
I find these statements surprising, and would be keen to hear more about this from you. I suppose that the latter goes a long way towards explaining the former. Personally, there are few technologies that I think are likely to radically change the world within the next 100 years (assuming that your definition of radical is similar to mine). Maybe the only ones that would really qualify are bioengineering and nanotech. Even in those fields, though, I expect the pace of change to be fairly slow if AI isn’t heavily involved.
(For reference, while I assign more than 30% credence to AGI within 50 years, it’s not that much more).
I suppose that the latter goes a long way towards explaining the former.
Yeah, I suspect you’re right.
Personally, there are few technologies that I think are likely to radically change the world within the next 100 years (assuming that your definition of radical is similar to mine). Maybe the only ones that would really qualify are bioengineering and nanotech. Even in those fields, though, I expect the pace of change to be fairly slow if AI isn’t heavily involved.
I think there are a couple more radically transformative technologies which I think are reasonably likely over the next hundred years, eg whole brain emulation. And I suspect we disagree about the expected pace of change with bioengineering and maybe nanotech.
Yeah, I think that a lot of EAs working on AI safety feel similarly to me about this.
I expect the world to change pretty radically over the next 100 years, and I probably want to work on the radical change that’s going to matter first. So compared to the average educated American I have shorter AI timelines but also shorter timelines to the world becoming radically different for other reasons.
I find these statements surprising, and would be keen to hear more about this from you. I suppose that the latter goes a long way towards explaining the former. Personally, there are few technologies that I think are likely to radically change the world within the next 100 years (assuming that your definition of radical is similar to mine). Maybe the only ones that would really qualify are bioengineering and nanotech. Even in those fields, though, I expect the pace of change to be fairly slow if AI isn’t heavily involved.
(For reference, while I assign more than 30% credence to AGI within 50 years, it’s not that much more).
Yeah, I suspect you’re right.
I think there are a couple more radically transformative technologies which I think are reasonably likely over the next hundred years, eg whole brain emulation. And I suspect we disagree about the expected pace of change with bioengineering and maybe nanotech.