Paul Christiano is a lot more optimistic than MIRI about whether we could align a Prosaic AGI. In a relatively recent interview with AI Impacts he said he thinks “probably most of the disagreement” about this lies in the question of “can this problem [alignment] just be solved on paper in advance” (Paul thinks there’s “at least a third chance” of this, but suggests MIRI’s estimate is much lower). Do you have a sense of why MIRI and Paul disagree so much on this estimate?
I think Paul is probably right about the causes of the disagreement between him and many researchers, and the summary of his beliefs in the AI Impacts interview you linked matches my impression of his beliefs about this.
Paul Christiano is a lot more optimistic than MIRI about whether we could align a Prosaic AGI. In a relatively recent interview with AI Impacts he said he thinks “probably most of the disagreement” about this lies in the question of “can this problem [alignment] just be solved on paper in advance” (Paul thinks there’s “at least a third chance” of this, but suggests MIRI’s estimate is much lower). Do you have a sense of why MIRI and Paul disagree so much on this estimate?
I think Paul is probably right about the causes of the disagreement between him and many researchers, and the summary of his beliefs in the AI Impacts interview you linked matches my impression of his beliefs about this.