You couldn’t know who is and is not engaging in this behaviour. Anyone with a good forecasting record may have shadow accounts.
I’m not familiar with proof records. Could you elaborate further? If this is verification such as identity documents, this could go some way to preventing manipulation.
If someone is doing the shadow account thing (ie, a boiler room scam, I think), there will be exponentially fewer forecasters for each number of successful bets. I don’t think this is the case for the well known ones
You couldn’t know who is and is not engaging in this behaviour. Anyone with a good forecasting record may have shadow accounts.
I’m not familiar with proof records. Could you elaborate further? If this is verification such as identity documents, this could go some way to preventing manipulation.
If someone is doing the shadow account thing (ie, a boiler room scam, I think), there will be exponentially fewer forecasters for each number of successful bets. I don’t think this is the case for the well known ones
I mean rankings like https://www.metaculus.com/rankings/?question_status=resolved&timeframe=3month