Even without bias, you need to know the ratio of the standard deviations of the distribution of true values and the distribution of estimates. The post assumes they are equal, which I wasn’t happy about (though I realise now that the fix for assuming they’re not equal is not that hard).
You’re right about the strength of the criticism, I should have edited that sentence and will do so now. I had weakened my claim about the strength of criticism in emails with Greg, but should have done so here too.
Even without bias, you need to know the ratio of the standard deviations of the distribution of true values and the distribution of estimates. The post assumes they are equal, which I wasn’t happy about (though I realise now that the fix for assuming they’re not equal is not that hard).
You’re right about the strength of the criticism, I should have edited that sentence and will do so now. I had weakened my claim about the strength of criticism in emails with Greg, but should have done so here too.