Labour migrants in aggregate contribute positively, but you are focused on non-western migration specifically, which the paper suggests has significantly worse effects than the average labour migrant. They find the average 30year old non-western migrant has a net impact of -EUR125k, or -EUR772k if he brings his family, and that the average 30year old labour migrant has a net impact of ~ +EUR175k (eyeballing the chart). They don’t show the intersection, but given that people often do bring their families, and 30 year old is basically the most-favourable-age possible, it seems very likely to me that the combination of non-western background and labour motive is negative.
And still seems quite likely that for skill-trade jobs with positive externalities (construction, healthcare) where the destination government is trying to attract foreign workers that the net societal impact is positive even in cases where the fiscal impact is negative.
But the picture is not as clear as I assumed—thank you.
Labour migrants in aggregate contribute positively, but you are focused on non-western migration specifically, which the paper suggests has significantly worse effects than the average labour migrant. They find the average 30year old non-western migrant has a net impact of -EUR125k, or -EUR772k if he brings his family, and that the average 30year old labour migrant has a net impact of ~ +EUR175k (eyeballing the chart). They don’t show the intersection, but given that people often do bring their families, and 30 year old is basically the most-favourable-age possible, it seems very likely to me that the combination of non-western background and labour motive is negative.
A good push. This kind of analysis will look different by the destination country’s level of social spending—Denmark has particularly high social spending.
And still seems quite likely that for skill-trade jobs with positive externalities (construction, healthcare) where the destination government is trying to attract foreign workers that the net societal impact is positive even in cases where the fiscal impact is negative.
But the picture is not as clear as I assumed—thank you.