Help me make sure Iām understanding this right. Youāre at position #4 from left to right, so this means 2029 according to your list. So, this means you think thereās a 50% chance of a combination of the ācrazyā scenarios happening by 2029, right?
Unfortunately, the EA Forum polls software makes it hard to ask certain kinds of questions. Your prediction is listed as ā70% 2026ā, but thatās just an artifact of the poll software.
To make it clear to readers what people are actually predicting, and to make sure people giving predictions understand the system properly, you might want to add instructions for people to say something like ā50% chance the Year of Crazy happens by 2029ā at the top of their comments. That would at least save readers the trouble of cross-referencing the list for every single prediction.
I tried to do a poll on peopleās AI bubble predictions and I ran into a similar issue with the poll software displaying the results confusingly.
Iām using a combination of scenarios in the postāone or more of these happen significantly before AGI.
Help me make sure Iām understanding this right. Youāre at position #4 from left to right, so this means 2029 according to your list. So, this means you think thereās a 50% chance of a combination of the ācrazyā scenarios happening by 2029, right?
Unfortunately, the EA Forum polls software makes it hard to ask certain kinds of questions. Your prediction is listed as ā70% 2026ā, but thatās just an artifact of the poll software.
To make it clear to readers what people are actually predicting, and to make sure people giving predictions understand the system properly, you might want to add instructions for people to say something like ā50% chance the Year of Crazy happens by 2029ā at the top of their comments. That would at least save readers the trouble of cross-referencing the list for every single prediction.
I tried to do a poll on peopleās AI bubble predictions and I ran into a similar issue with the poll software displaying the results confusingly.
Yes, one or more of the ācrazyā things happening by 2029. Good suggestion: I have edited the post and my comments to include the year.