Year of AGI (2035)
Extrapolating the METR graph here <https://​​www.lesswrong.com/​​posts/​​6KcP7tEe5hgvHbrSF/​​metr-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains> means soon for super-human coder, but I think it’s going to take years after that for the tasks that are slower on that graph, and many tasks are not even on that graph (despite the speedup from having a superhuman coder).
Extrapolating the METR graph here <https://​​www.lesswrong.com/​​posts/​​6KcP7tEe5hgvHbrSF/​​metr-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains> means soon for super-human coder, but I think it’s going to take years after that for the tasks that are slower on that graph, and many tasks are not even on that graph (despite the speedup from having a superhuman coder).