One factor missing from this post is the distribution of skill. Attracting the most skilled locals away from your country is likely to lose almost all of the individuals who are orders of magnitude more valuable than average. I am no fan of Great Person Theory, but categorically removing an entire band of workers from the country during their prime productive years should almost ensure that the benefits of those impacts don’t accrue back home. Additionally, the top people in a given career would presumably be there anyway, and the actual counterfactual increases are in the lower tail of the skill distribution; this is borne out by the Filipino nurses example you cite, which notes that average nurse quality declined.
Consider the Indian software industry that you mention. How much stronger would it have been if the likes of Satya Nadella and Sundar Pichai had not found it overwhelmingly valuable to migrate to the U.S.? Not just them, but nearly the entire top X% of their graduating classes? If they had started businesses there, what proportion of the Indian software industry would be working for local companies instead of sending their surplus value overseas? How much more tax revenue would their governments raise?
(Also, it would be remiss not to mention that Nadella and Pichai probably don’t send 10–15% of their salary back to India; and in fact, if they were interested in developing the Indian software economy, they’d choose to pay a bit more than merely ~20% of the U.S. compensation for the same graduate-level jobs)
If, as you note, the brain drain calculus depends on remittances, increased workforce, returning home, and broader contributions to or investment in the local economy, the impact of losing the top X% of skilled individuals may very well tip those scales. So I think it’s unreasonable to claim that the policy concern is “completely misplaced” and that countries should, as a rule, encourage their skilled people to seek the best opportunities—this is very strong language!
100% agree. In addition unlike you I do subscribe to “Great Person” theory a little—at least to the extent that if most of the top 1% of people are going abroad then you are losing truckloads of leadership and growth potential.
Here in Northern Uganda a few great people in the 90s had a huge impact on a couple of hospitals here, growing those hospitals, improving the level of medical education and inspiring their communities.. Now that wouldn’t happen because they all look for the big money and opportunities in Kampala—let alone overseas!
One factor missing from this post is the distribution of skill. Attracting the most skilled locals away from your country is likely to lose almost all of the individuals who are orders of magnitude more valuable than average. I am no fan of Great Person Theory, but categorically removing an entire band of workers from the country during their prime productive years should almost ensure that the benefits of those impacts don’t accrue back home. Additionally, the top people in a given career would presumably be there anyway, and the actual counterfactual increases are in the lower tail of the skill distribution; this is borne out by the Filipino nurses example you cite, which notes that average nurse quality declined.
Consider the Indian software industry that you mention. How much stronger would it have been if the likes of Satya Nadella and Sundar Pichai had not found it overwhelmingly valuable to migrate to the U.S.? Not just them, but nearly the entire top X% of their graduating classes? If they had started businesses there, what proportion of the Indian software industry would be working for local companies instead of sending their surplus value overseas? How much more tax revenue would their governments raise?
(Also, it would be remiss not to mention that Nadella and Pichai probably don’t send 10–15% of their salary back to India; and in fact, if they were interested in developing the Indian software economy, they’d choose to pay a bit more than merely ~20% of the U.S. compensation for the same graduate-level jobs)
If, as you note, the brain drain calculus depends on remittances, increased workforce, returning home, and broader contributions to or investment in the local economy, the impact of losing the top X% of skilled individuals may very well tip those scales. So I think it’s unreasonable to claim that the policy concern is “completely misplaced” and that countries should, as a rule, encourage their skilled people to seek the best opportunities—this is very strong language!
100% agree. In addition unlike you I do subscribe to “Great Person” theory a little—at least to the extent that if most of the top 1% of people are going abroad then you are losing truckloads of leadership and growth potential.
Here in Northern Uganda a few great people in the 90s had a huge impact on a couple of hospitals here, growing those hospitals, improving the level of medical education and inspiring their communities.. Now that wouldn’t happen because they all look for the big money and opportunities in Kampala—let alone overseas!