FWIW, I think interested potential grantees can guesstime these probabilities & the likely feedback themselves. They can just ask their favorite LLM. This has the advantage that the org doesnāt have to support this themselves, where it would give a false sense of confidence to possible grantees.
I agree that they applicants can and will compute the ex-ante probabilities in this way. But what Iām suggesting is that the grantmakers could share probabilities informed by the grantersā
own internal discussions of priority areas and of the grant applications as as well as as, interim grant decisions (who have they already decided to fund).
The grant makers might reasonably be reluctant to share that internal discussion, but might be willing to share estimated probabilities implied by these.
I suspect thereās a lot of this private information that the applicants are unaware of.
Similarly for āwhich part of the applicants case are granters is already convinced by in which part needs more justificationā ā I suspect that applicants has major blindspots, and a tiny bit of hints and steering could help a lot
Thanks for sharing this.
FWIW, I think interested potential grantees can guesstime these probabilities & the likely feedback themselves. They can just ask their favorite LLM. This has the advantage that the org doesnāt have to support this themselves, where it would give a false sense of confidence to possible grantees.
I agree that they applicants can and will compute the ex-ante probabilities in this way. But what Iām suggesting is that the grantmakers could share probabilities informed by the grantersā own internal discussions of priority areas and of the grant applications as as well as as, interim grant decisions (who have they already decided to fund).
The grant makers might reasonably be reluctant to share that internal discussion, but might be willing to share estimated probabilities implied by these.
I suspect thereās a lot of this private information that the applicants are unaware of.
Similarly for āwhich part of the applicants case are granters is already convinced by in which part needs more justificationā ā I suspect that applicants has major blindspots, and a tiny bit of hints and steering could help a lot