Thanks for this! You might also be interested in the results of FORESIGHT, and other work within the intelligence communities, about how to warn (H/T @Alex D).
My understanding is that warning correctly is surprisingly hard; there are many times where (correct) warnings are misunderstood, not heeded, or not even really heard.
There’s a temptation ex post to blame the warned for not paying sufficient attention, of course, but it’d also be good for people interested in raising alarms (“warners”) to make their warnings as clear, loud, and unambiguous as possible.
Thanks for this! You might also be interested in the results of FORESIGHT, and other work within the intelligence communities, about how to warn (H/T @Alex D).
My understanding is that warning correctly is surprisingly hard; there are many times where (correct) warnings are misunderstood, not heeded, or not even really heard.
There’s a temptation ex post to blame the warned for not paying sufficient attention, of course, but it’d also be good for people interested in raising alarms (“warners”) to make their warnings as clear, loud, and unambiguous as possible.