Do you have any further thoughts since posting this regarding how difficult vs valuable it is to attempt quantification of the values? Approximately how time-consuming is such work in your experience?
With the caveat that I’m someone who’s pretty pro-quantification in general and also unusually comfortable with high-uncertainty estimates, I didn’t find the quantification process to be all that burdensome. In constructing the FDA case study, far more of my time was spent on qualitative research to understand the potential role the FDA might play in various x-risk scenarios than coming up with and running the numbers. Hope that helps!
Thanks for the comment!
With the caveat that I’m someone who’s pretty pro-quantification in general and also unusually comfortable with high-uncertainty estimates, I didn’t find the quantification process to be all that burdensome. In constructing the FDA case study, far more of my time was spent on qualitative research to understand the potential role the FDA might play in various x-risk scenarios than coming up with and running the numbers. Hope that helps!