Top AI safety researchers are now saying that they expect AI to be safe by default, without further intervention from EA. See here and here.
Two points:
“Probably safe by default” doesn’t mean “we shouldn’t work on it”. My estimate of 90% that you quote still leaves a 10% chance of catastrophe, which is worth reducing. (Though the 10% is very non-robust.) It also is my opinion before updating on other people’s views.
Those posts were published because AI Impacts was looking to have conversations with people who had safe-by-default views, so there’s a strong selection bias. If you looked for people with doom-by-default views, you could find them.
Two points:
“Probably safe by default” doesn’t mean “we shouldn’t work on it”. My estimate of 90% that you quote still leaves a 10% chance of catastrophe, which is worth reducing. (Though the 10% is very non-robust.) It also is my opinion before updating on other people’s views.
Those posts were published because AI Impacts was looking to have conversations with people who had safe-by-default views, so there’s a strong selection bias. If you looked for people with doom-by-default views, you could find them.