The main benefit of prediction markets in posts is not on betting on the performance of particular posts, but on betting on the claims in the post. I see it more like:
Epistemic status : - I think 60% to 70% chance of X (and click to bet over/under) - Y odds-ratio in favor of X (and link to my bet on existing market for X) - I’m not betting on this, but
Post Summary → testable prediction in market title Epistemic comments vs Vibe comments → comments with bets vs without Epistemic likes vs Vibe likes → market movement vs karma Paid peer review for X → market subsidy
The main benefit of prediction markets in posts is not on betting on the performance of particular posts, but on betting on the claims in the post. I see it more like:
Epistemic status :
- I think 60% to 70% chance of X (and click to bet over/under)
- Y odds-ratio in favor of X (and link to my bet on existing market for X)
- I’m not betting on this, but
Post Summary → testable prediction in market title
Epistemic comments vs Vibe comments → comments with bets vs without
Epistemic likes vs Vibe likes → market movement vs karma
Paid peer review for X → market subsidy