The main benefit of prediction markets in posts is not on betting on the performance of particular posts, but on betting on the claims in the post. I see it more like:
Epistemic status : - I think 60% to 70% chance of X (and click to bet over/under) - Y odds-ratio in favor of X (and link to my bet on existing market for X) - I’m not betting on this, but
Post Summary → testable prediction in market title Epistemic comments vs Vibe comments → comments with bets vs without Epistemic likes vs Vibe likes → market movement vs karma Paid peer review for X → market subsidy
Sinclair has been working on allowing authors to embed Manifold prediction markets inside of a LessWrong/EA Forum post! See: https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/pull/4907
So ideally, you could set up a prediction market for each of these things eg
“How many epistemic corrections will the author issue in the next week?”
“Will this post win an EA Forum prize?”
“Will this post receive >50 karma?”
“Will a significant critique of this post receive >50 karma?”
“Will this post receive a citation in major news media?”
And then bet on these directly from within the Forum!
The main benefit of prediction markets in posts is not on betting on the performance of particular posts, but on betting on the claims in the post. I see it more like:
Epistemic status :
- I think 60% to 70% chance of X (and click to bet over/under)
- Y odds-ratio in favor of X (and link to my bet on existing market for X)
- I’m not betting on this, but
Post Summary → testable prediction in market title
Epistemic comments vs Vibe comments → comments with bets vs without
Epistemic likes vs Vibe likes → market movement vs karma
Paid peer review for X → market subsidy