Agree that we are missing some things here. My guess is that this one is not too large (less than an order of magnitude), in significant part because we’re just using ‘eventual size’ as a convenient proxy, and increases to the size there seem likely to be highly correlated with increases at intermediate times.
That said, it’s great to look for things we may be missing, and see if we can reach consensus about which could change the answer crucially.
Agree that we are missing some things here. My guess is that this one is not too large (less than an order of magnitude), in significant part because we’re just using ‘eventual size’ as a convenient proxy, and increases to the size there seem likely to be highly correlated with increases at intermediate times.
That said, it’s great to look for things we may be missing, and see if we can reach consensus about which could change the answer crucially.