I should hope they’re influencing those outcomes, otherwise they’re wasting resources! ;)
But I guess you’re saying something like, ‘We can’t infer much about the health of EA based on this evidence because this is an area where people are actively trying to grow numbers, so naturally it’s improving’. But this argument feels circular. If that’s the standard, it would be pretty hard to provide evidence that meets your bar. Unless your claim is something like, ‘A healthy movement doesn’t need to actively try and grow itself because it’ll just naturally grow’?
More like: If EA is healthy, then groups that have been getting a consistent level of support should be as a class either stable or growing. That’s why I suggested looking at non-EOSP elite university groups—them being at least stable as a class would be evidence of general health. On the other hand, if their output is dropping despite holding investment steady, that would not be a great sign.
Ah, got you. I think I agree. I only shared the EOSP data since Chris seemed to think it was relevant.
For what it’s worth, my current take is that top-of-funnel growth has slowed in recent years, but bottom-of-funnel growth is holding up well — likely thanks to strong top-of-funnel numbers in earlier years and decent retention.
This view is mostly based on data from the Netherlands.
We’re fairly confident that intro course completions in NL surged in 2022, but have been declining since. Data collection isn’t perfect, but these are our approximate figures:
2021: 45
2022: 402
2023: 298
2024: 190
These numbers include completions from uni groups, the national intro course, and the virtual programme.
Meanwhile, bottom-of-funnel metrics — e.g. GWWC pledges — are looking strong:
Year
10% Pledge
Trial Pledge
2022
40
35
2023
36
52
2024
56
57
We haven’t publicly shared our strategy for 2025 yet, but long story short, we’re focusing on top-of-funnel growth.
I should hope they’re influencing those outcomes, otherwise they’re wasting resources! ;)
But I guess you’re saying something like, ‘We can’t infer much about the health of EA based on this evidence because this is an area where people are actively trying to grow numbers, so naturally it’s improving’. But this argument feels circular. If that’s the standard, it would be pretty hard to provide evidence that meets your bar. Unless your claim is something like, ‘A healthy movement doesn’t need to actively try and grow itself because it’ll just naturally grow’?
Or maybe I’m completely misunderstanding you?
More like: If EA is healthy, then groups that have been getting a consistent level of support should be as a class either stable or growing. That’s why I suggested looking at non-EOSP elite university groups—them being at least stable as a class would be evidence of general health. On the other hand, if their output is dropping despite holding investment steady, that would not be a great sign.
Ah, got you. I think I agree. I only shared the EOSP data since Chris seemed to think it was relevant.
For what it’s worth, my current take is that top-of-funnel growth has slowed in recent years, but bottom-of-funnel growth is holding up well — likely thanks to strong top-of-funnel numbers in earlier years and decent retention.
This view is mostly based on data from the Netherlands.
We’re fairly confident that intro course completions in NL surged in 2022, but have been declining since. Data collection isn’t perfect, but these are our approximate figures:
2021: 45
2022: 402
2023: 298
2024: 190
These numbers include completions from uni groups, the national intro course, and the virtual programme.
Meanwhile, bottom-of-funnel metrics — e.g. GWWC pledges — are looking strong:
We haven’t publicly shared our strategy for 2025 yet, but long story short, we’re focusing on top-of-funnel growth.
Hmm… The continued decline in 2024 is worrying.
Same. That’s why I’m glad CEA seems to agree with us about the need for a focus on sustainable growth.