I haven’t looked in detail at how Give Well evaluates evidence, so maybe you’re no worse here, but I don’t think “weighted average of published evidence” is appropriate when one has concerns about the quality of published evidence. Furthermore, I think some level of concern about the quality of published evidence should be one’s baseline position—I.e. a weighted average is only appropriate when there are unusually strong reasons to think the published evidence is good.
I’m broadly supportive of the project of evaluating impacts on happiness.
You’re right that we should be concerned with the quality of published evidence. I discounted psychotherapy’s effect by 17% for having a higher risk of effect inflation than cash transfers, see Appendix C of McGuire & Plant (2021). However, this was the first pass at a fundamental problem in science, and I recognize we could do better here.
We’re planning on revisiting this analysis and improving our methods – but we’re currently prioritizing finding new interventions more than improving our analyses of old ones. Unfortunately, we currently don’t have the research capacity to do both well!
I haven’t looked in detail at how Give Well evaluates evidence, so maybe you’re no worse here, but I don’t think “weighted average of published evidence” is appropriate when one has concerns about the quality of published evidence. Furthermore, I think some level of concern about the quality of published evidence should be one’s baseline position—I.e. a weighted average is only appropriate when there are unusually strong reasons to think the published evidence is good.
I’m broadly supportive of the project of evaluating impacts on happiness.
Hi David,
You’re right that we should be concerned with the quality of published evidence. I discounted psychotherapy’s effect by 17% for having a higher risk of effect inflation than cash transfers, see Appendix C of McGuire & Plant (2021). However, this was the first pass at a fundamental problem in science, and I recognize we could do better here.
We’re planning on revisiting this analysis and improving our methods – but we’re currently prioritizing finding new interventions more than improving our analyses of old ones. Unfortunately, we currently don’t have the research capacity to do both well!