The point I’m trying to make is that it’s impossible to collect data on interventions that don’t yet exist. We might be able to estimate the impact of current psychedelics on well-being, but it is going to be a lot more difficult to estimate the impact that psychedelics will have on well-being in say five years time if we fund loads of research into making them better.
As such I think a novel approach may be required to evaluate something like Usona. There might still be a WELLBY approach suitable but I suspect it would have to be expected WELLBYs, perhaps forecasting progress that we have seen in psychedelics research.
Right. The psychedelic work will probably be a more speculative and a lower-bound estimate. I expect we’ll take the opportunity to cut our teeth on estimating the cost-effectiveness of research.
Thanks Samuel.
The point I’m trying to make is that it’s impossible to collect data on interventions that don’t yet exist. We might be able to estimate the impact of current psychedelics on well-being, but it is going to be a lot more difficult to estimate the impact that psychedelics will have on well-being in say five years time if we fund loads of research into making them better.
As such I think a novel approach may be required to evaluate something like Usona. There might still be a WELLBY approach suitable but I suspect it would have to be expected WELLBYs, perhaps forecasting progress that we have seen in psychedelics research.
Hi Jack,
Right. The psychedelic work will probably be a more speculative and a lower-bound estimate. I expect we’ll take the opportunity to cut our teeth on estimating the cost-effectiveness of research.