I think thereâre a lot of inferential steps most people would need to go through to get from their current worldview, to a longtermist worldview. But I think a pretty massive one is just getting people to appreciate how big the future could be, and I think this post does a great job of that.
An added bonus is that the idea that the future could be huge is a claim the longtermist community is particularly certain of (whereas other important ideas, such as the likelihood of various existential risks and what we can do about them are extremely uncertain and contested). While quantifying how big the future could be, or is on expectation, is really difficultâbut the idea that it could be extremely big stands up to scrutiny quite well. I think itâs really useful to have such beautifully illustrated graphs that put where humanity is now into context, Iâm excited to use them for future work on longtermism at Giving What We Can.
RE something that would be useful for OWID on longtermism. Iâd be very interested in approximate data on the amount of funding each year that gets directed to improving the very long-term future. Given thereâd be a lot of difficult edge-cases here (e.g., should climate change funding be included?), it may need to be operationalised quite narrowly (perhaps âHow much money do we spend each year on avoiding human extinction?â would be better.)
Yes, the question about tracking funding is one that is on our list â itâd be so helpful to understand this. But building and maintaining this would be quite a major undertaking. To do it well weâd need someone who can dedicate a lot of time and energy to it. And we are still a very small team, so realistically we wonât be able to do that in the next few years.
Makes sense! From your appearance on the 80,000 Hours podcast, I was shocked by how much you have managed to do given youâre such a small team. Iâm really looking forward to seeing what you accomplish as you expand :)
This was fantastic, thanks for sharing!
I think thereâre a lot of inferential steps most people would need to go through to get from their current worldview, to a longtermist worldview. But I think a pretty massive one is just getting people to appreciate how big the future could be, and I think this post does a great job of that.
An added bonus is that the idea that the future could be huge is a claim the longtermist community is particularly certain of (whereas other important ideas, such as the likelihood of various existential risks and what we can do about them are extremely uncertain and contested). While quantifying how big the future could be, or is on expectation, is really difficultâbut the idea that it could be extremely big stands up to scrutiny quite well. I think itâs really useful to have such beautifully illustrated graphs that put where humanity is now into context, Iâm excited to use them for future work on longtermism at Giving What We Can.
RE something that would be useful for OWID on longtermism. Iâd be very interested in approximate data on the amount of funding each year that gets directed to improving the very long-term future. Given thereâd be a lot of difficult edge-cases here (e.g., should climate change funding be included?), it may need to be operationalised quite narrowly (perhaps âHow much money do we spend each year on avoiding human extinction?â would be better.)
Thanks. Very good to hear!
Yes, the question about tracking funding is one that is on our list â itâd be so helpful to understand this. But building and maintaining this would be quite a major undertaking. To do it well weâd need someone who can dedicate a lot of time and energy to it. And we are still a very small team, so realistically we wonât be able to do that in the next few years.
Makes sense! From your appearance on the 80,000 Hours podcast, I was shocked by how much you have managed to do given youâre such a small team. Iâm really looking forward to seeing what you accomplish as you expand :)