This all seems extremely optimistic. I don’t see the words ‘environment’, ‘externalities’, ‘biodiversity’, or ‘pollution’ mentioned at all, let alone ‘geopolitics’, ‘fragmentation’, ‘onshoring’, ‘deglobalisation’ or ‘supply chains’. And nothing about energy demands and cost of extraction. Based on upbeat consultancies biased models that always conclude things are good for business? I’ll be extremely surprised if this ‘lower bound’ scenario is even the upper.
Fair point, but as I wrote, this is just the optimistic the ‘business as usual’ boring scenario in the absence of catastrophes (e.g. a new cold war). I still think it’s a somewhat likely outcome.
This all seems extremely optimistic. I don’t see the words ‘environment’, ‘externalities’, ‘biodiversity’, or ‘pollution’ mentioned at all, let alone ‘geopolitics’, ‘fragmentation’, ‘onshoring’, ‘deglobalisation’ or ‘supply chains’. And nothing about energy demands and cost of extraction. Based on upbeat consultancies biased models that always conclude things are good for business? I’ll be extremely surprised if this ‘lower bound’ scenario is even the upper.
Fair point, but as I wrote, this is just the optimistic the ‘business as usual’ boring scenario in the absence of catastrophes (e.g. a new cold war). I still think it’s a somewhat likely outcome.
On environment / energy: perhaps we’ll decouple growth and environmental externalities.
The models from consultancies are based on standard growth models and correlate strongly with IMF projections.