Now imagine that effect compounded a few times over. The difference between a 85% forecast and 10% forecast become effectively zero.
I think that my answer is something like: Yeah, the difference between a 10% and an 85% becomes zero, but if this is e.g., existential risk per century, the difference doesn’t really matter at the current margin, and both probabilities indicate that we should take many of the same actions.
Muahahahaha
To answer this:
I think that my answer is something like: Yeah, the difference between a 10% and an 85% becomes zero, but if this is e.g., existential risk per century, the difference doesn’t really matter at the current margin, and both probabilities indicate that we should take many of the same actions.