Yeah this is plausible but my intuitions go the other way. Would be interested in a replication that looks like50% Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
0.0003%: Lifetime probability of dying from lightning
0.00001%: Probability a random newborn becomes a U.S. president
vs
1 in 2: Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
1 in 6: Probability a fair die will land on 5
1 in 9: Probability that in a room with 10 people, 2 of them have the same birthday.
1 in 14: Probability a randomly selected adult in America self-identifies as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender
1 in 100: lifetime risk of dying from a car accident
I would also find this experiment interesting!
Current theme: default
Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
Arrow keys: Next/previous image
Escape or click: Hide zoomed image
Space bar: Reset image size & position
Scroll to zoom in/out
(When zoomed in, drag to pan; double-click to close)
Keys shown in yellow (e.g., ]) are accesskeys, and require a browser-specific modifier key (or keys).
]
Keys shown in grey (e.g., ?) do not require any modifier keys.
?
Esc
h
f
a
m
v
c
r
q
t
u
o
,
.
/
s
n
e
;
Enter
[
\
k
i
l
=
-
0
′
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
→
↓
←
↑
Space
x
z
`
g
Yeah this is plausible but my intuitions go the other way. Would be interested in a replication that looks like
50% Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
0.0003%: Lifetime probability of dying from lightning
0.00001%: Probability a random newborn becomes a U.S. president
vs
1 in 2: Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
1 in 6: Probability a fair die will land on 5
1 in 9: Probability that in a room with 10 people, 2 of them have the same birthday.
1 in 14: Probability a randomly selected adult in America self-identifies as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender
1 in 100: lifetime risk of dying from a car accident
I would also find this experiment interesting!