Yeah this is plausible but my intuitions go the other way. Would be interested in a replication that looks like50% Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
0.0003%: Lifetime probability of dying from lightning
0.00001%: Probability a random newborn becomes a U.S. president
vs
1 in 2: Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
1 in 6: Probability a fair die will land on 5
1 in 9: Probability that in a room with 10 people, 2 of them have the same birthday.
1 in 14: Probability a randomly selected adult in America self-identifies as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender
1 in 100: lifetime risk of dying from a car accident
I would also find this experiment interesting!
Yeah this is plausible but my intuitions go the other way. Would be interested in a replication that looks like
50% Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
0.0003%: Lifetime probability of dying from lightning
0.00001%: Probability a random newborn becomes a U.S. president
vs
1 in 2: Probability a flip of a fair coin will be Tails
1 in 6: Probability a fair die will land on 5
1 in 9: Probability that in a room with 10 people, 2 of them have the same birthday.
1 in 14: Probability a randomly selected adult in America self-identifies as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender
1 in 100: lifetime risk of dying from a car accident
I would also find this experiment interesting!