It’s a little hidden in the pdf linked, but the short time horizons are 0-2 years. Tetlock (who pioneered the superforecasting) was skeptical that longer term forecasts would be useful, this research will help tell whether he was right.
It’s a little hidden in the pdf linked, but the short time horizons are 0-2 years. Tetlock (who pioneered the superforecasting) was skeptical that longer term forecasts would be useful, this research will help tell whether he was right.