Thanks so much for writing this. I’m really looking forward to the area by area reports.”track record of predictive accuracy over short time horizons” Out of interest, how long do you consider “short time horizons” to be?
It’s a little hidden in the pdf linked, but the short time horizons are 0-2 years. Tetlock (who pioneered the superforecasting) was skeptical that longer term forecasts would be useful, this research will help tell whether he was right.
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Thanks so much for writing this. I’m really looking forward to the area by area reports.
”track record of predictive accuracy over short time horizons”
Out of interest, how long do you consider “short time horizons” to be?
It’s a little hidden in the pdf linked, but the short time horizons are 0-2 years. Tetlock (who pioneered the superforecasting) was skeptical that longer term forecasts would be useful, this research will help tell whether he was right.