Orthogonally, I think most people are willing to pay more for a more legible/direct theory of impact.
“I give $2800, this kid has lifesaving heart surgery” is certainly more legible and direct than a GiveWell-type charity. In the former case, the donor doesn’t have to trust GiveWell’s methodologies, data gathering abilities, and freedom from bias. I’ve invested a significant amount of time and thought into getting to my current high level of confidence in GiveWell’s analyses, more time than most people are prepared to spend thinking about their charitable donations.
And I think most people—including myself—have a prior that projections and analyses of all sorts tend to be overinflated in comparison to reality. How many building projects come in on time and under budget? How many IT projects? The less complex the theory of impact, the less the lightly-researching donor will end up implicitly discounting the organization’s claims on account of their background skepticism of projections and analyses.
Orthogonally, I think most people are willing to pay more for a more legible/direct theory of impact.
“I give $2800, this kid has lifesaving heart surgery” is certainly more legible and direct than a GiveWell-type charity. In the former case, the donor doesn’t have to trust GiveWell’s methodologies, data gathering abilities, and freedom from bias. I’ve invested a significant amount of time and thought into getting to my current high level of confidence in GiveWell’s analyses, more time than most people are prepared to spend thinking about their charitable donations.
And I think most people—including myself—have a prior that projections and analyses of all sorts tend to be overinflated in comparison to reality. How many building projects come in on time and under budget? How many IT projects? The less complex the theory of impact, the less the lightly-researching donor will end up implicitly discounting the organization’s claims on account of their background skepticism of projections and analyses.