I thought section 6.1 on ‘Cumulative risk and intergenerational coordination’ was very good. Many people (including those promoting action on existential risk) neglect how important it is that we get risk down and then keep it down. This is a necessary part of what I call existential security in my section of The Precipice devoted to our longterm strategy. And it is not easy to achieve. One strategy I talk about is implementing a constitution for humanity, committing future generations to work within their own diminishing share of a finite existential risk budget.
I broadly agree with section 6.2 on dialectical flips, which is why I made broadly the same point in The Precipice (p 275):
“This is contrary to our intuitions, as people who estimate risk to be low typically use this as an argument against prioritizing work on existential risk.”
I was thus a bit surprised to see my book cited in that section as something endorsing the Time of Perils, but not as something that had made the same point you are making about why high risk per-period risk reduces the EV of work on single-period risk reduction.
I thought section 6.1 on ‘Cumulative risk and intergenerational coordination’ was very good. Many people (including those promoting action on existential risk) neglect how important it is that we get risk down and then keep it down. This is a necessary part of what I call existential security in my section of The Precipice devoted to our longterm strategy. And it is not easy to achieve. One strategy I talk about is implementing a constitution for humanity, committing future generations to work within their own diminishing share of a finite existential risk budget.
I broadly agree with section 6.2 on dialectical flips, which is why I made broadly the same point in The Precipice (p 275):
“This is contrary to our intuitions, as people who estimate risk to be low typically use this as an argument against prioritizing work on existential risk.”
I was thus a bit surprised to see my book cited in that section as something endorsing the Time of Perils, but not as something that had made the same point you are making about why high risk per-period risk reduces the EV of work on single-period risk reduction.