I have to admit, I wouldn’t have taken it to heart much if these studies hadn’t found much effect (nor if they had found a huge effect). And I feel exposed here bc I know that looks bad, like I’m resisting actual evidence in favor of my vibes, but I really think my model is better and the evidence in these studies should only tweak it.
I’m just not that hopeful that you can control enough of the variables with the few historical examples we have to really know that through this kind of analysis. I also think the defining of aims and impacts is too narrow—Overton window pushing can manifest in many, many ways and still be contributing to the desired solution.
I’m comfortable with pursuing protests through PauseAI US because they were a missing mood in the AI Safety discussion. They are a form of discussion and persuasion, and I approach them similarly to how I decide to address AI danger in writing or in interviews. They are also a form of showing up in force for the cause, in a way that genuinely signals commitment bc it is very hard to get people to do it, which is important to movement building even when small. The only point of protests is not to get whatever the theme of that protest was (the theme of our protests is either shutting down your company or getting an international treaty lol)-- they feed back into the whole movement and community, which can have many unanticipated but directionally desirable impacts.
I don’t think my approach to protests is perfect by any means, and I may have emphasized them too much and failed to do things I should to grow them. But I make my calls about doing protests based on many considerations for how it will affect the rhetorical and emotional environment of the space. I wish there were studies that could tell me how to do this better, but there aren’t, just like there aren’t studies that tell me exactly what to write to change people’s minds on AI danger in the right way. (Actually, a good comparison here would be “does persuasive writing work?” bc there we all have personal experiences of knowing it worked, but actually as a whole the evidence might be thin for it achieving its aims.)
Thanks for giving your perspective, Holly. This is useful since you’re one of the few EAs who’s organizing protests full-time.
I really think my model is better and the evidence in these studies should only tweak it.
Related to this, I said I’m 90% confident that protests worked. But I’m less than 90% confident in the results of my meta-analysis (maybe only 75% confident). A good chunk of my confidence comes from other, weaker evidence.
I wish there were studies that could tell me how to do this better, but there aren’t
The studies do suggest one thing about how to do protests: nonviolence is better than violence. But you’re already not doing violent protests.
“I’m comfortable with pursuing protests through PauseAI US because they were a missing mood in the AI Safety discussion.”
This raises and important point: if the success and impact of protests dependent on awareness of an issue / the existence of prior protests ?
We might imagine that the first protests on an issue are more impactful, and if protests reach a point where there’s dozens going on regularly, that might also be uniquely effective.
I have to admit, I wouldn’t have taken it to heart much if these studies hadn’t found much effect (nor if they had found a huge effect). And I feel exposed here bc I know that looks bad, like I’m resisting actual evidence in favor of my vibes, but I really think my model is better and the evidence in these studies should only tweak it.
I’m just not that hopeful that you can control enough of the variables with the few historical examples we have to really know that through this kind of analysis. I also think the defining of aims and impacts is too narrow—Overton window pushing can manifest in many, many ways and still be contributing to the desired solution.
I’m comfortable with pursuing protests through PauseAI US because they were a missing mood in the AI Safety discussion. They are a form of discussion and persuasion, and I approach them similarly to how I decide to address AI danger in writing or in interviews. They are also a form of showing up in force for the cause, in a way that genuinely signals commitment bc it is very hard to get people to do it, which is important to movement building even when small. The only point of protests is not to get whatever the theme of that protest was (the theme of our protests is either shutting down your company or getting an international treaty lol)-- they feed back into the whole movement and community, which can have many unanticipated but directionally desirable impacts.
I don’t think my approach to protests is perfect by any means, and I may have emphasized them too much and failed to do things I should to grow them. But I make my calls about doing protests based on many considerations for how it will affect the rhetorical and emotional environment of the space. I wish there were studies that could tell me how to do this better, but there aren’t, just like there aren’t studies that tell me exactly what to write to change people’s minds on AI danger in the right way. (Actually, a good comparison here would be “does persuasive writing work?” bc there we all have personal experiences of knowing it worked, but actually as a whole the evidence might be thin for it achieving its aims.)
Thanks for giving your perspective, Holly. This is useful since you’re one of the few EAs who’s organizing protests full-time.
Related to this, I said I’m 90% confident that protests worked. But I’m less than 90% confident in the results of my meta-analysis (maybe only 75% confident). A good chunk of my confidence comes from other, weaker evidence.
The studies do suggest one thing about how to do protests: nonviolence is better than violence. But you’re already not doing violent protests.
“I’m comfortable with pursuing protests through PauseAI US because they were a missing mood in the AI Safety discussion.”
This raises and important point: if the success and impact of protests dependent on awareness of an issue / the existence of prior protests ?
We might imagine that the first protests on an issue are more impactful, and if protests reach a point where there’s dozens going on regularly, that might also be uniquely effective.