Yes all fair, and I’d say it goes beyond counterfactuals. I’m not sure people fully realize how sensitive many conclusions are to all sorts of assumptions, which are often implicit in standard models. I am on record disagreeing strongly with John Halstead about the likely cost-effectiveness of advocating for economic growth, and I feel similarly about much of the longtermist agenda, so this isn’t specific to animals. My personal sense is that if you can save an existing human life for a few thousand dollars (for which the evidence is very clear, although point taken that the marginal impact isn’t definitively pinned down—however I’d guess within a factor of two,), that’s an extremely high bar to overcome.
Yes all fair, and I’d say it goes beyond counterfactuals. I’m not sure people fully realize how sensitive many conclusions are to all sorts of assumptions, which are often implicit in standard models. I am on record disagreeing strongly with John Halstead about the likely cost-effectiveness of advocating for economic growth, and I feel similarly about much of the longtermist agenda, so this isn’t specific to animals. My personal sense is that if you can save an existing human life for a few thousand dollars (for which the evidence is very clear, although point taken that the marginal impact isn’t definitively pinned down—however I’d guess within a factor of two,), that’s an extremely high bar to overcome.