(1) Can QALYs be bought very cheaply (in expectation) through this research?
(2) Assuming they can, is this a good use of resources?
Most of the comment discussion so far is on (1), although Lila brings up something of (2).
On (1), I think your estimate looks significantly too optimistic overall, by erring on the side of optimism in most of the components. However, that isn’t nearly enough to sink the idea. Even a small chance of success could be enough to provide a high cost-effectiveness in expectation, which would justify putting more effort into seeing if we can be confident that the chance of success is very close to zero.
On (2), QALYs are an abstraction that work well because they provide a basis for comparison between different health states—different situations, but ones which often have substantial similarities. The effect of successful anti-ageing research would be different enough in kind that we might want to think about it from first principles rather than just using the QALY framework (although it’s an informative starting point).
A solution to ageing would increase the length of lives, and increase the length of productive lives. It isn’t obvious what the effect on total population would be: the direct effect would be to increase it, but the existence of this technology might well change the birth rate. Overall this seems to be good for the people living in this society.
A second effect might be to lengthen people’s time horizons. If global decision-makers expected to live another 50-100 years, we might see better coordination on global problems. This is also a very speculative effect, but seems to be positive.
I see two questions:
(1) Can QALYs be bought very cheaply (in expectation) through this research?
(2) Assuming they can, is this a good use of resources?
Most of the comment discussion so far is on (1), although Lila brings up something of (2).
On (1), I think your estimate looks significantly too optimistic overall, by erring on the side of optimism in most of the components. However, that isn’t nearly enough to sink the idea. Even a small chance of success could be enough to provide a high cost-effectiveness in expectation, which would justify putting more effort into seeing if we can be confident that the chance of success is very close to zero.
On (2), QALYs are an abstraction that work well because they provide a basis for comparison between different health states—different situations, but ones which often have substantial similarities. The effect of successful anti-ageing research would be different enough in kind that we might want to think about it from first principles rather than just using the QALY framework (although it’s an informative starting point).
A solution to ageing would increase the length of lives, and increase the length of productive lives. It isn’t obvious what the effect on total population would be: the direct effect would be to increase it, but the existence of this technology might well change the birth rate. Overall this seems to be good for the people living in this society.
A second effect might be to lengthen people’s time horizons. If global decision-makers expected to live another 50-100 years, we might see better coordination on global problems. This is also a very speculative effect, but seems to be positive.