Nice, thanks. To the extent that, indeed, noise generally washes out our impact over time, my impression is that the effects of increasing human population in the next 100 years on long-term climate change may be a good counterexample to this general tendency.
Not all long-term effects are equal in terms of how significant they are (relative to near-term effects). A ripple on a pond barely lasts, but current science gives us good indications that i) releasing carbon into the atmosphere lingers for tens of thousands of years, and ii) increased carbon in the atmosphere plausibly hugely affects the total soil nematode population (see, e.g., Tomasik’s writings on climate change and wild animals)[1]. It is not effects like (i) and (ii) Bernard’s post studies, afaict. I don’t see why we should extrapolate from his post that there has to be something that makes us mistaken about (i) and/or (ii), even if we can’t say exactly what.
I forgot to comment on your example about climate change. The question is not whether carbon dioxide (CO2) will remain in the atmosphere, but whether emitting 1 kg more today means there will be 1 kg more in e.g. 1 k years.
As an analogy, I think banning caged hens in a country may well imply there will be no caged hens there forever, but I still think the difference between the expected number of caged hens there without and with the ban still decreases over time. Animal welfare corporate campaigns have resulted in fewer hens in cages, and, more longterm, I believe technological development will lead to alternative proteins which decrease the consumption of eggs, or new systems which displace cages. In addition, economic growth means greater willingness to pay for animal welfare.
Likewise, blocking the construction of a farm which produces 10 t/year of chicken meat per year does not mean the global production of chicken meat will be 10 t/year lower forever. Existing farms can increase their production, and additional new farms be built to offset the initial drop in production.
The chance of the end goal being achieved via other means can be modelled with an annual discount rate. Any cost-effectiveness analysis estimating finite benefits necessarily assumes the benefits decrease over time. Otherwise, they would be infinite.
hey sorry for reopening but very curious to get your take on this:
Say you have been asked to evaluate the overall[1] utilitarian impact of the very first Christianity-spreaders during the first century AD (like Paul the Apostle) on the world until now (independently of their intention ofc). You have perfect information on what’s causally counterfactually related to their actions. How much of their impact (whether good or bad) is on beings between 0 and 200 VS. on beings between 200 and now? (making your usual assumptions you specifically make about nematodes and stuff; don’t take anyone else’s perspective.)
If mostly the former, how do you explain that?
If mostly the latter, what’s the difference between their ex post impact and yours? Why is most of their ex post impact longtermist-ish while yours would be neartermist? Why would, e.g., most of the people helping nematodes, thanks to you (including very indirectly through your influence on others before them) be concentrated within the next hundred years?
No worries, Jim! Feel free to ask questions like this any time.
I would model the impact of the very 1st Christianity-spreaders as speeding up some changes that would happen anyway a few decades to a century later. I guess most of their impact was before the year 200. The answer for me does not depend on whether one accounts for only humans, or all potential beings, or whether Christianity lasts 3 k or 3 M years. The theory of relativity could remain relevant for centuries (even if as an approximation), but I guess Albert Einstein still only accelerated the knowledge about it by a few years to decades. Both the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 only affected real gross world product (GWP) for 3 years or so (approximate time until returning to the original trajectory).
You may be interested in my chat with Matthew Adelstein. We discussed my scepticism about longtermism.
Nice, thanks. To the extent that, indeed, noise generally washes out our impact over time, my impression is that the effects of increasing human population in the next 100 years on long-term climate change may be a good counterexample to this general tendency.
Not all long-term effects are equal in terms of how significant they are (relative to near-term effects). A ripple on a pond barely lasts, but current science gives us good indications that i) releasing carbon into the atmosphere lingers for tens of thousands of years, and ii) increased carbon in the atmosphere plausibly hugely affects the total soil nematode population (see, e.g., Tomasik’s writings on climate change and wild animals)[1]. It is not effects like (i) and (ii) Bernard’s post studies, afaict. I don’t see why we should extrapolate from his post that there has to be something that makes us mistaken about (i) and/or (ii), even if we can’t say exactly what.
Again, we might have no clue in which direction, but it still does.
I forgot to comment on your example about climate change. The question is not whether carbon dioxide (CO2) will remain in the atmosphere, but whether emitting 1 kg more today means there will be 1 kg more in e.g. 1 k years.
As an analogy, I think banning caged hens in a country may well imply there will be no caged hens there forever, but I still think the difference between the expected number of caged hens there without and with the ban still decreases over time. Animal welfare corporate campaigns have resulted in fewer hens in cages, and, more longterm, I believe technological development will lead to alternative proteins which decrease the consumption of eggs, or new systems which displace cages. In addition, economic growth means greater willingness to pay for animal welfare.
Likewise, blocking the construction of a farm which produces 10 t/year of chicken meat per year does not mean the global production of chicken meat will be 10 t/year lower forever. Existing farms can increase their production, and additional new farms be built to offset the initial drop in production.
The chance of the end goal being achieved via other means can be modelled with an annual discount rate. Any cost-effectiveness analysis estimating finite benefits necessarily assumes the benefits decrease over time. Otherwise, they would be infinite.
Interesting. Thanks for taking the time to explain all that :)
Thanks for the interesting questions too, Jim!
hey sorry for reopening but very curious to get your take on this:
Say you have been asked to evaluate the overall[1] utilitarian impact of the very first Christianity-spreaders during the first century AD (like Paul the Apostle) on the world until now (independently of their intention ofc). You have perfect information on what’s causally counterfactually related to their actions. How much of their impact (whether good or bad) is on beings between 0 and 200 VS. on beings between 200 and now? (making your usual assumptions you specifically make about nematodes and stuff; don’t take anyone else’s perspective.)
If mostly the former, how do you explain that?
If mostly the latter, what’s the difference between their ex post impact and yours? Why is most of their ex post impact longtermist-ish while yours would be neartermist? Why would, e.g., most of the people helping nematodes, thanks to you (including very indirectly through your influence on others before them) be concentrated within the next hundred years?
I.e., factoring in nematodes and stuff.
No worries, Jim! Feel free to ask questions like this any time.
I would model the impact of the very 1st Christianity-spreaders as speeding up some changes that would happen anyway a few decades to a century later. I guess most of their impact was before the year 200. The answer for me does not depend on whether one accounts for only humans, or all potential beings, or whether Christianity lasts 3 k or 3 M years. The theory of relativity could remain relevant for centuries (even if as an approximation), but I guess Albert Einstein still only accelerated the knowledge about it by a few years to decades. Both the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 only affected real gross world product (GWP) for 3 years or so (approximate time until returning to the original trajectory).
You may be interested in my chat with Matthew Adelstein. We discussed my scepticism about longtermism.