I’m a little dubious about the dates given for “crisis of the middle Ages here”. Wikipedia gives 14th and 15th century, i.e. 1300 to some non-negligible amount of time past 1400. That’s at least a 3rd of a century after 1265-1359 for the beginning and at least 41 years after (and possibly much more for the end): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_the_late_Middle_Ages The Wikipedia page on the Great Famine of 1315 (or 50 years after 1265) claims that it was the beginning of the crisis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1315%E2%80%931317 ’The famine caused many deaths over an extended number of years and marked a clear end to the period of growth and prosperity from the 11th to the 13th centuries.’
This suggests to me (though obviously doesn’t prove) that the climate-based theory of crisis gets the last 3rd of the 13th century (1265-1300) wrong, and probably the first 15 years of the 14th century as well.
Having such a accuracy in your prediction is still pretty impressive when it comes to history. There is no super clear cut on how you define the start and end of things like “crisis of the middle ages”, so I think the prediction is actually quite good.
I’m a little dubious about the dates given for “crisis of the middle Ages here”. Wikipedia gives 14th and 15th century, i.e. 1300 to some non-negligible amount of time past 1400. That’s at least a 3rd of a century after 1265-1359 for the beginning and at least 41 years after (and possibly much more for the end): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_the_late_Middle_Ages The Wikipedia page on the Great Famine of 1315 (or 50 years after 1265) claims that it was the beginning of the crisis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1315%E2%80%931317 ’The famine caused many deaths over an extended number of years and marked a clear end to the period of growth and prosperity from the 11th to the 13th centuries.’
This suggests to me (though obviously doesn’t prove) that the climate-based theory of crisis gets the last 3rd of the 13th century (1265-1300) wrong, and probably the first 15 years of the 14th century as well.
Having such a accuracy in your prediction is still pretty impressive when it comes to history. There is no super clear cut on how you define the start and end of things like “crisis of the middle ages”, so I think the prediction is actually quite good.
It can be clear that there was no crisis before 1300 and clear that there was one in 1400 even if the boundaries are blurry.